Saturday, January 26, 2008

A future for gasoline?

There's been a horrible amount of discussion concerning the price and availability of petroleum products.

Before anything we must realize: There is not enough crude oil available to sustain our need for petroleum products.
Simple fact, the amount available is limited, our needs over extended periods of time are not. Oil will run out, or at least become rare and expensive.

This will not happen soon, we will likely manage to come by easy to process oil for several decades. We may have multiple centuries worth of oil sand at our disposal, but it will eventually become too much of a hassle to process, it will become too expensive.

A lot of industries require petroleum products. The petrochemical industry caters to fuel suppliers, pharmaceutical companies, companies who produce paint, adhesives, plastics and artificial rubber. Where do you think your PVC tubing comes from?
Clearly, if oil were to disappear overnight, we'd be properly f*cked. Fortunately we know in advance what could happen, and where we will be hit. How do we cope with this?

Some things can be accomplished just fine without oil. Electricity can be gotten from solar panels or nuclear energy, hydropower and so on. Most people are concerned predominantly with their car. If our society evolves to one focused on huge cities with extreme population densities, then electrical cars become a very viable means of transport. Since you never have to travel outside of city limits, and you can recharge you vehicle almost anywhere (public outleds which charge money per KW/h you charge)

Aside from that, diesel can be prepared just fine from fatty acids. As long as we can farm olive oil and pigs are fat, we can make diesel in ridiculously simple factories, providing fuel for trucks and ships commuting in between cities, factories etc. ... I actually did this a month ago, I made some biodiesel from used frying oil, woked out quite well.
Alcohol is a somewhat viable alternative as well, also provided that you stay in a densely populated area, due to the large volume of alcohol required to run a car and the frequent re-fill of your gas tank it entails.

A bit more difficult would be to provide the petrochemical industry with an alternative. You can't make plastic out of just anything. True, but the most fundamental products: ethylene and ethylene oxide can be prepared just fine out of ethylalcohol, the drinking kind. Hardly as convenient as running a batch of crude oil through a steam cracker, but a viable way none the less.

You cant just make polyethylene (the plastic used for lemonade bottles, jerry cans etc ...) out of ethylene. And as long as the aforementioned steam cracker stays fed, fuel won't be a problem either.

There will not be a shortage of hydrocarbons (constituents of crude oil) unless there is a severe shortage of alcohol (or another feed source) from which to make it.
It will however be a lot more expensive than it is today. Let's face it: this planets oil reserves were godsent, and we've accomplished so much because of them, but now we've got to start working on plan B.

2 comments:

BigBear said...

It is going to be a very ugly transition to non traditional fuel sources. A lot of jockeying for top spot on the replacement list, the oil companies will not go quietly. Look at who is buying up the solar panel manufacturing companies.

Michael Hawkins said...

I think they're just stretching the assets they have, as well as ensuring their position of power when oil becomes too expensive.

Oil will run out, so they count their profit and invest it in the future, which will actually smoothen the transition to a certain degree.